‘Take a Running Back in the First Round, They Said. It’s the Best Move For Upside, They Said.’ – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 2 Update

‘Take a Running Back in the First Round, They Said. It’s the Best Move For Upside, They Said.’ – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 2 Update

For an explanation on how FGW is calculated, go back to Week 1.

TL;DR: FGW is the number of games a player is likely to have won (or lost) for you. For example, if a player scored so much that he increased an average team’s chance of winning from 50% to 90%, and he was started 100% of the time, that’s a FGW score of 0.4 (0.9 minus 0.5). If he was started 50% of the time, and an approximate replacement player dropped the rate from 50% to 40%, that’s an FGW of 0.15 (50% of the +0.4, and 50% of the -0.1).

This is an abbreviated version of my full post over on my website here: https://byroncobalt.com/2022/09/20/take-a-running-back-in-the-first-round-they-said-its-the-best-move-for-upside-they-said-fantasy-games-won-fgw-week-2-update/

So get this – of the top 12 players in Yahoo! ADP, 7 of which are RBs and 5 of which are WRs, guess how many RBs are currently in the top 5 first round picks?


What a great year to have a top 2 pick! Just like last year.

Yeah, so that’s pretty weird. Not enough to light the pitchforks and go searching the village for supposed Fantasy Football experts, but perhaps that day will come. I have mine ready.

Who Won Week 2?

That surprising jump from 0.24 to 0.16 checks out

  • I keep trying to reconcile Stefon Diggs-the-Bill with Stefon Diggs-the-Viking. Does scheme fit/age really account for the degree to which Thielen was kind of obviously the better receiver in Minnesota ? Is it possible Thielen would be even better than Diggs in Buffalo? Would that make Justin Jefferson something like an alien if he were on Buffalo?
  • Quick side note – no kidding, I just typed out “Jordan Jefferson” and had to reference my list because it didn’t feel right, but I couldn’t figure out on my own what his first name was. The dad effect is real. You cannot avoid it. It shouldn’t be happening to me, and yet even I’m not immune. I used to be able to recite the first rounds of every draft from 2002-2010. My kids are 5, 2, and 0. By the time they’re 18, 15, and 13 I’ll be reminiscing about that time Joe Falco led my Jets to their most exciting regular season win since Jimbo Elliott scored in the Monday Night Miracle.
  • Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle might be something like the offensive equivalent of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The speed is just too much to handle for two separate players. Scheme nightmare.
  • And Mike Williams doing Mike Williams things again.
  • Not a strong week for Justin “Da Man Jordan” Jefferson.
  • Marshon Lattimore should get fantasy points every time he induces Mike Evans into ejection. Not sure why I just phrased it that way.
  • WTF, Jonathan Taylor. Maybe this week playing in Indy we’ll see some Home Improvement.
  • Kyle “2 for 19” Pitts, fool me twice…
  • Does anyone have the time and place for the next TLDOA (Trey Lance Dynasty Owners Anonymous) meeting?
  • While Jeu is the lowest FGW scorer this week, JuJu takes the lowest non-injured scoring slot. It feels like he never left.

Season Leaders

I’m conditional formatting left and right here

  • Another Jets plug…while I’m encouraged by the Jets holding what might be a beast-mode 2022 Lamar to a mediocre game, I’m less encouraged that we share a division with Josh Allen.
  • Speaking of division, if you divide D’Andre Swift’s scoring by his touches, the result is a large number. Wonder how he’ll rank amongst the 2010s Georgia RBs when all is said and done.
  • Saquon Barkley is officially on borrowed time. This must be what Mets fans feel like.
  • Kickers should not be in fantasy football any more than Punters should be in fantasy football. It’s a monkeys and the firehose situation – we’re just doing it because they had to choose players with official scoring in the pre-internet fantasy football days. Same with Team Defense, which should be IDP or nothing.
  • Derrick Henry, wow. I kept calling him the Terminator last year and I guess we’re maybe entering the Terminator 3 territory? I have to watch that to get some references ready.
  • Wouldn’t be an FGW column without Allen Robinson making an appearance.
  • Speaking of replacements, I wonder where Tom Brady’s tablet must have bounced after he threw it. There’s, like, a ton of people around the bench – how does it not hit someone? Also, his tablet throwing form is very similar to his football throwing form. A lot of touch on the throw. Actually, maybe it didn’t hit anyone.

The Full List

This image sucks on the WordPress site, like maybe ants can read it

  • dFGW is back! That’s FGW adjusted for draft slot. I’m using last year’s equation for a bit but will roll in this year’s data after a few weeks.
  • There are teams out there with Stefon Diggs, D’Andre Swift, AJ Brown, and Lamar Jackson. They might be even better than 2-0, they might be 4 and -2 at this point.

If you have Brady and Zeke on your team, just remember, we’re all going down with this ship together. It has been a privilege and an honor.


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