I’ve been on a pretty great run of late but not posting based on earlier results. I’ve put some of my thoughts in other threads so there is that verification but otherwise you will just have to assess and research on your own, as everyone should be doing anyways.
Today, the Champions League returns and I see some very dicey type of affairs. As a PSG fan, it’s been tough to bear all the soap opera and having lost on the weekend 3-2 to Nice, a team they strangely typically struggle against, I’m not sure the soap opera is over. But having watched the game, there were many missed opportunities from the PSG side and that is a bit worrisome considering how easy some of them were. Dortmund has yet to lose on this campaign and is a very, very tidy team that travels well. So I don’t know that I would back PSG today at the low number.
YOUNG BOYS +1 (-133): Two things to note here. First, Young Boys are an extremely strong side from Switzerland that are almost untouchable at home in domestic play. Two, Leipzig is not quite the same team on the road and in the Champions League having lost 7 of 11 road affairs and giving up more than 3 goals in 4 of those affairs. I like the odds here getting a goal in a fortress that should be at a high frequency for todays game. Being that the game is the early one being played, I opted to lay off the OVER even though Leigpzig averages about 3.9 TOTAL GOALS (not per their side) in their last 10 Champions League games.
OVER 3 (-135) CELTIC/FEYENOORD: Both teams can score and as good as Feyenoord are at home, they have some history vs. Celtic. I cannot see the home team not getting at least 2 goals at home but the weight of the affair might have some added pressures as they haven’t been in the Champions League for years. IF they play their game, the total here will at worst push. If they don’t, there is still the chance that Celtic is able to break down the defense. Good value in a good spot here.
PORTO (-156): I know the odds are high but so is the probability that Porto wins this game on the road against a Shakhtar Donetsk team still battling the war in their country and displaced b/c of it. Porto are veterans of the tournament, they will know to start off strong, and will do so accordingly today.
ATLETICO MADRID PK (-135): Similar theme here, the more experienced team against the less experienced team. Atletico was playing superb ball until this past weekend but maybe the look ahead angle was in play. I see Diego Simeone’s men getting their heads straight and looking to start fast as they were eliminated last year in the group stage which is nothing like what they are used to.
OVER 1.5 (-136) FK CREVNA/MAN CITY: NO reason to play Man City in the FH, that’s an easy gimme. But I do think they might be goal happy and, as is the case in many of their games, take the opposition a bit lightly and give up an early goal. If that happens, they will surely beat the FH OVER. If not, I’m siding that they will get at least 2 in the first 45
BARCELONA FH -1 (+g): Tough opponent for Barcelona but being at home they should get an early goal and get the lead. I am playing the -1 to save on the juice in the case they come out taking things for granted. They are also not at Camp Nou for this game so don’t want to have that a reason they falter FH and we drop bigger odds.
That’s it for today, let’s see how they go. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all…