Australian Politics – Voice Referendum international arbitrage (Political futures) – HUGE value potentially on the line)

Australian Politics – Voice Referendum international arbitrage (Political futures) – HUGE value potentially on the line)

tldr: Australia has a national referendum vote that has had a collapse in support for a “yes” vote, many international book makers may not have updated the odds to reflect the massive swing in the few weeks.

A majority of Australians have indicated they will vote “no” in the upcoming referendum on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament, according to a national Essential poll conducted Sept. 13–17 from a sample of 1,135 people.

The poll gave the “no” side a 51–41% lead over the “yes” side, compared to a 48–42% lead two weeks ago.

BetUS for example is pricing Yes at 1.33 and No at 3.00 – However local Australian book maker BlueBet (Only one offering odds on this event due to highly political nature) has Yes 4.75 and No at 1.15.

I’m not sure about big U.S./European/Asian books, but definitely worth checking out if this event is available – If you can bet on “No” winning in the referendum at even odds or above then it is a screaming bet and I would go as far to say “bet of the year”

submitted by /u/Big-Charity4463
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